SRINAGAR, Jan 26 : A fresh Western Disturbance is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir from Monday evening, likely bringing rain and snowfall to the region with the possibility of moderate to heavy snow in the higher reaches.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif told news agency Kashmir News Service (KNS) the system is “not a strong one, but it is active enough to bring moderate to locally heavy snowfall at higher elevations.”
He said while snowfall is possible in the plains as precipitation is expected to begin during the night, “the probability of good snow accumulation across most plains remains low.”
According to him, moderate or heavy accumulation in low-lying areas would largely depend on the occurrence of ‘dry snow’ during the night and added, “If temperatures hover around 3–4°C, accumulation will be limited or unlikely.”
The probability of snowfall in the plains is currently around 50 per cent, with chances of decent accumulation pegged at 30–40 per cent, he said.
Region-wise, the probability of dry snow is estimated at 30-40 per cent for the plains of north and central Kashmir, while areas like Shopian and Kulgam, especially those closer to the Pir Panjal range, have a higher chance—around 60–70 per cent—of receiving dry snow and better accumulations, Arif said.
The Chenab Valley, Poonch district, and the Qazigund-Banihal stretch are also likely to witness snowfall, while other regions may experience mainly rain, he said, adding strong winds are not anticipated to be a major feature of this system.
This is the second active weather spell within a week during the intense winter period of ‘Chillai Kalan.’ The Kashmir Valley had witnessed heavy snowfall last Friday, which ended a prolonged dry spell.
That previous snowfall, followed by a windstorm, had disrupted normal life. The administration has been engaged in efforts to clear roads and restore power infrastructure affected by the last weather event. (KNS)
